Pandemic of the unvaccinated based on bad science

The Fisman et al. Psi parameter is concocted and invalid

Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) concocted a parameter, which they denote Psi (the Greek letter, ψ). They applied their concocted Psi to incorrectly claim that the risk of infection with COVID-19 to the vaccinated is Psi-fold disproportionately due to the unvaccinated.

Their Psi parameter is mathematically ill-defined, artificially large by its design, and varies in directions contrary to what is physically possible. It is an absurd quantity introduced ad hoc, having no epidemiological basis.

With my co-author Joseph Hickey, PhD, we rigorously proved that the Fisman et al. parameter Psi is nonsense, and we showed that its application can cause harm in society. We made our proof and demonstration in this detailed report:

Rancourt, D.G., and Hickey, J., “Comment on ‘Impact of immune evasion, waning and boosting on dynamics of population mixing between a vaccinated majority and unvaccinated minority’ by Fisman et al. (2024): Incorrect definition and application of a parameter ψ”. CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest, Brief Report, 25 April 2024. https://correlation-canada.org/comment-on-fisman-et-al-2024/ (also available at several other websites)

Here are the Abstract, Table of Contents, and Section 1 of our report:

Abstract

We prove that Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) incorrectly define and apply a parameter ψ. They rely solely on their parameter ψ to erroneously advance that the risk of infection incurred by vaccinated persons due to contacts with unvaccinated persons is alarmingly “disproportionate”. Their faulty application of ψ would imply that the said risk increases with increasing segregation from the unvaccinated (up to complete segregation, η = 1), increases with increasing vaccination coverage (up to complete coverage, P_v = 1) and increases with increasing vaccine efficacy (up to perfect vaccine efficacy, VE = 1), which is contrary to reason. We show that Fisman et al.’s published errors in applying ψ have a potential to cause harm by encouraging overly aggressive (disproportionate) public health policies and interventions.

1.    Nature of the error made by Fisman et al.

Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) modelled hypothetical COVID-19 epidemics, assuming interacting groups of vaccinated and unvaccinated people, segregated to different degrees η, between 0 and 1, where η = 1 corresponds to total segregation (zero contacts between vaccinated and unvaccinated people).

In their model, Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) have introduced a new parameter (ψ), which (to our knowledge, having examined the literature), has not been used or adopted by other modelling research groups.

Their mathematical definition of ψ can be proven to be incorrect on three grounds, which are disjunctive and individually sufficient:

(1)   ψ in its mathematical definition does not represent what Fisman et al. explicitly claim it to represent

(2)   ψ ― while claimed to represent the physical reality of risk incurred by vaccinated persons due to contacts with unvaccinated persons ― diverges to exceedingly large values in approaching model parameter bounds

(3)   ψ ― while claimed to represent the physical reality of risk incurred by vaccinated persons due to contacts with unvaccinated persons ― varies with changing model parameters in directions contrary to reason

We prove these points (1, 2 and 3) below. See Sections 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3, and also Section 5.

Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) explicitly rely on ψ for main conclusions in both their papers. They base these conclusions in their two papers solely on ψ. The conclusions do not follow from ψ values, and are also incorrect. The unfounded conclusions, if propagated, constitute a potential source of harm via thus misinformed public health policy and interventions.

The present refutation of the Fisman et al. (2022, 2024) errors related to their introduced ψ parameter is as succinct as possible, but it is more intricate than many readers might want. This is unavoidable because of the bullshit asymmetry principle, also known as Brandolini’s law: “The amount of energy needed to refute bullshit is an order of magnitude bigger than to produce it.” (Gelman, 2019).

Continue reading the report here.

Also, political background is provided in the 2023 book “Fisman's Fraud: The Rise of Canadian Hate Science” by Regina Watteel, PhD. In my opinion, Regina is correct to call it a fraud.

We have added proof that the Fisman et al. model design itself is incorrect. Even if we accept that epidemiological models are in general relevant in this application, the Fisman et al. Psi is garbage science. The unvaccinated do not contribute Psi-fold disproportionately to infecting the vaccinated. The publishers, media and politicians who repeat the Fisman et al. studies are causing harm by spreading misinformation about a vital public health matter.

All CORRELATION reports are here: https://correlation-canada.org/research/

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